Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. Pdf agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project agmip is a global initiative aimed at making comprehensive assessment. This study assesses the economywide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in ethiopian agriculture. As the impacts of climate change on the people varied from one to another, the. Rapid growth of agriculture, industries and urbanization within the awash basin, ethiopia, as well as population growth is placing increasing demands on the basins water resources. To assist countries in developing and transforming agricultural systems that both limit their impact on and are resilient to climate change, the food and agriculture organization of the united nations fao mobilizes support in promoting climate smart agriculture csa around the world. Environments 2018, 5, 15 2 of 17 winds and the proliferation of diseases and pests 59. Future climate change predictions agree that changes in rainfall, temperature, and seasonality will impact ethiopia with dramatic consequences. Reducing vulnerability to climate change risks and shocks as well as increasing adaptive capacity will be key for ethiopia as climate related disasters increase. Assessment of climate change impacts on highland lake of eastern ethiopia olana kumessa yadessa abstract lakes are fragile and vulnerable to global and local climate changes, and human intervention. Estimates suggest climate change may reduce ethiopia s gdp up to 10 percent by 2045, primarily through impacts on agricultural productivity. Those with huge dependence on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are. Feb 06, 2020 climate change will affect all nations, but the impact will be higher on lowincome countries, such as ethiopia, which have limited capacity to cope with the effects of a changing climate.
These changes also hamper economic activity and aggravate existing social and economic problems. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on ethiopian. Communities are suffering from greater variability and extreme weather events, increased temperature and declining rainfall in a country where 85 percent of farmers are dependent on rainfed agriculture. The impact of climate change on coffee production in colombia and ethiopia joel iscaro. Confronting the effect of climate change in ethiopia horn. Such productivity and migration effects in agriculture will propagate to the rest of the economy. The intention is to provide a clear message for development practitioners and policy makers in order to enable them to cope with the threats, as well as understand the opportunities, presented by ongoing climate change. Thus, the importance of adaptation measures for the 61. Ethiopian agriculture currently accounts for close to 42 percent of ethiopias output, employs 85 percent. Feb, 2019 english news and press release on ethiopia about climate change and environment, contributions and drought. Preface agriculture is the mainstay of the ethiopian population and a key sector of the countrys economy. Drought is the single most destructive climaterelated natural hazard in ethiopia. Ccfe climate change forum ethiopia cdm clean development mechanism.
The aim of this study was, therefore, to assess the impact of climate change on the agricultural productivity of smallholder farmers in northern ethiopia. Ministry of environment, forest and climate change, ethiopia. Full project proposal format food and agriculture organization. Changes in lake ecosystems as a result of climatic and anthropogenic factors can in turn have significant impact on the livelihood of a society. Its time to change the way agriculture affects the environment, and vice versa.
The relationship between agriculture and climate change is problematic to say the least, and it is putting food. Ethiopia is home to close to 100 million people, and it currently stands to be the second most populous country in africa. Smallscale farmers and pastoralists in ethiopia are likely to bear the brunt of the negative impacts of climate change in the region, which will include increased poverty, water scarcity, and food insecurity, according to a new oxfam international report released today. The study concluded that increasing temperatures and decreased precipitation, due to climate change, will have a longlasting negative effect on ethiopian agriculture. Climate change is expected to have a greater impact in lowincome countries such as ethiopia because of low numbers of trained people, poor infrastructures and limited economic capability to respond to the challenges. Considering the alarming predictions of researchers and policy makers concerning the natural phenomenon climate change, this study effects of climate change on agricultural sustainability implications for food security was carried out in. Farmers response to climate change and variability in ethiopia. The united nations framework convention on climate change unfccc secretariat has produced this book to highlight the concerns and needs of developing countries in adapting to the effects of climate change. Ethiopian agriculture currently accounts for close to 42 percent of ethiopia s output, employs 85 percent. Studies on the impact of climate change on growth and poverty in ethiopia should focus on the agricultural sector for it is undoubtedly the most important, and sensitive, sector to climate change.
However, on account of climatic, social and institutional factors contributing to low production and productivity, agriculture is. Pdf impacts of climate change on agriculture in ethiopia. Climate change increasing poverty and vulnerability in. In this study session you will learn about the impacts of climate change on human health, the environment, agriculture, water supply, sanitation and socio. How will climate change spatially affect agriculture. English news and press release on ethiopia about climate change and environment, contributions and drought. Weather variability, climate change and agricultural productivity in ethiopia. This book outlines the impact of climate change in four developing country regions.
In ethiopia, about 80 percent of the population remain dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. Modeling climate change impacts on bread wheat triticum aestivum l. Although some empirical studies on climatechange impacts in ethiopia already exist. Climate change impacts on ethiopian agriculture, growth, and poverty. Communications of ethiopia to the unfccc abebe, 2009. Cross sectional data of almost 3,000 counties in united states of america was used. Impacts of climate change on crop production in ethiopia. Similarly, the mainstay of the ethiopian economy is rainfed. Conclusions even though tfp growth matters more than climate change for the overall outcome, climate change will have a dramatic impact even in the highgrowth scenarios. Farmers adaptation strategies to climate change and their.
Deressa 2007 of the world bank completed an extensive study of ethiopian agriculture. Efforts are focused around the promotion of climate smart agriculture that faciliates adaptation in cerealbased and livestock systems. Climate change has led to recurrent droughts and famines, flooding, expansion of desertification, loss of wetlands, loss of biodiversity, decline in agricultural production and productivity, shortage of water, and increased. In addition, the program works with the ministry of agriculture to mainstream climate change into national agriculture plans and agriculture into climate change policy.
These challenges are likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. The iaea helps member states to use these techniques to measure the impact of climate change and adapt to its effects, helping to improve agriculture and the. In doing so, it uses a computable general equilibrium cge model based on the 200506 ethiopian social accounting matrix. They forecast an 85% reduction of localities with wild coffee in. So far there has not been any study to address the economic impact of climate change on ethiopian agriculture and farmlevel adaptations that farmers make to mitigate the potential impact of climate change. Climate resilient green economy crge strategy to underpin this ambition and to strengthen its capacity to adopt to the effects of climate change. But, more importantly, firstly, whereas the mixed croplivestock farming is dominant farming style, most of the studies on climate change, at least in the context of ethiopia, have looked at vulnerability to, impact of, and adaptation options to climate change with emphasis only on crop agriculture and disregarding the role of livestock. Climate change in ethiopia variability, impact, mitigation, and adaptation article pdf available may 2016 with 22,774 reads how we measure reads. Climate change can have significant negative impacts on ethiopias. Agriculture production will be affected by increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent and intense extreme weather events. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture john f. Climatic changes have resulted several negative consequences on livelihood, health, economy and environment of the people in ethiopia 15. Of the 18 agroecological zones, 11 agroecological zones, representing more than 74% of the country, were selected and total of farmers from 50 districts were interviewed.
Climate change, growth and poverty in ethiopia integrated drought. Quantitative climate change impact assessments made so far on various socioeconomic sectors are limited in the country. The brief includes an overview of ethiopia, the climate and projected changes. Production in central highlands of ethiopia abu tolcha gari1, mezegebu getnet2 and lisanework nigatu3 1ethiopian institute of agricultural research eiar, oromia, ethiopia 2international crop research institute for the samiarid tropics icrisat, addis ababa, ethiopia. Ricardian approach1 temesgen tadesse deressa2 1 an earlier version of this working paper was published as ceepa discussion paper number 25. However, effort was made to compile information on climate change. The main effect of climate change on the water resources of the entire planet is the disruption of the hydrological cycle. Nearly all of ethiopias agriculture is dependent on rainfall, particularly the amount and seasonal occurrence. The impact of climate change and adaptation through agro. It used the ricardian model to calculate the economic impact of climate change on agriculture. Ethiopia climate smart agriculture scoping study melaku jirata, sebastian grey and edward kilawe. Apr 20, 2016 this study uses the ricardian approach to analyze the impact of climate change on ethiopian agriculture and to describe farmer adaptations to varying environmental factors.
Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in ethiopia, there is growing evidence that weather outcomes are likely to become more variable in the future, implying that severe droughts and floods may very well have a greater impact on cereal production in the future than in the past. Pdf climate change, agriculture, and economic development. One of the most important projects to mitigate climate change with agriculture and adapting agriculture to climate change at the same time, was launched in 2019 by the global evergreening alliance. Climate change has a disproportionately worse impact on the lives and livelihoods of societies which depend on the natural environment for their daytoday needs. Climate change and agricultural productivity in ethiopia. Drylands in the context of climate change inventory of adaptation practices and technologies of ethiopia kidane georgis, author and principal research on dryland agriculture ethiopian institute of agricultural research eiar in collaboration with alemneh dejene, team leader, environmental sustainability and climate change adaptation, fao, rome. These will be used as a guide to prioritise and prepare climate resilient green economy plans and projects, which will be submitted to the crge facility to access climate funds. On the impact of weather variability and climate change on. Assessment of climate change impacts on highland lake of. Ethiopias struggle against climate change gets a boost. Climate change impacts on crop yields in ethiopia ifpri. These will have direct effects on crop growth and their need for water, as well as soil fertility, water supply for irrigation, and prevalence of pests and diseases.
Predicted future change 16 coffee growing in ethiopia has been negatively 20 influenced by climate change presentday suitability for coffee growing in ethiopia 20 feedback from coffee farmers and direct observation 21 climate change will continue to impact 24 and alter coffee growing in ethiopia over the coming decades climate change modelling. Identified modeling for economic impact of climate change. Pdf climate change in ethiopia variability, impact. Agriculture which includes crop production, animal husbandry livestock, forestry, fisheries and apiculture remains by far the most important sector of the country from which livestock constitutes the largest component of the ethiopian agricultural. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. Agricultural based livelhood systems in drylands in the. Confronting the effect of climate change in ethiopia. Many areas of ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.
Pdf climate change and livestock production in ethiopia. The impacts of climate change on water resources, in turn, affect all major sectors of the economy. Impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural sector are projected to steadily manifest directly from changes in land and water regimes, the likely primary conduits of change. List of adaptation options from climate resilience strategy agriculture and forestry, 2015. Estimates suggest climate change may reduce ethiopias gdp up to 10 percent by 2045, primarily through impacts on agricultural productivity. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on. Climate change, agriculture, and economic development in. Modeling climate change impacts on bread wheat triticum. The impact of climate change on teff production in. Impacts of climate change on crop production and its.
Climate can be viewed as an integration of complex weather conditions averaged over a significant area. Mar 25, 20 the government is also designing the sector reduction mechanism, which aims to set green economy, climate change resilience targets and indicators for key sectors. Agriculture completely dominates ethiopia s economy and any climate change impacts on agriculture will be. Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a. Agriculture in ethiopia is the foundation of the countrys economy, accounting for half of gross domestic product gdp, 83. Climate changevariability impacts on farmers livelihoods. May 01, 2019 among the inevitable consequences of climate change, the most important is its impact on water resources the basis of environmental wellbeing, economic growth, and global security 2.
In this context, planning and implementing climate change adaptation polices, measures and strategies in ethiopia will be necessary. Implications for household food security in agropastoral areas of jigjiga district, eastern ethiopia yared lemma1, fekadu beyene2 and bekele hundie3 abstract ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to the impacts of climate change and variability. The importance of coffee in the ethiopian agricultural sector 1,2,3,4,5,6 coffee production and export in 20172018 arabica. The effects of global warming on food supply are dire, whilst world population is increasing. The impact of climate change on coffee production in. Climate change is expected to influence the work done by actuaries. Accordingly, little is known about how climate change may affect the countrys agriculture. Importance of smallholder farming systems in ethiopia 4. Ethiopia climate smart agriculture scoping study iii. Adaptation to climate change is expected to increase maize yields in all aezs, with mk gaining the most from adaptations. Study session 11 impacts of climate change in ethiopia. Impact on production and productivity of agriculture climate change is expected to have adverse ecological, social and economic impacts.
Climate change is expected to have adverse ecological, social and economic impacts. Ethiopias struggle against climate change gets a boost from. Agriculture is the foundation of ethiopia s economy where crop production contributes more than 65% of the agricultural gdp of the country. The impacts of existing and predicted changes in climate vary across economies. Climate change, agriculture, and economic development in ethiopia. Adaptation is recognized as a critical response to the impacts of climate change. Climate change vulnerability and risk assessment of agriculture and. Climate change and the ethiopian economy resources for the. Mar 04, 2014 plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models.
The countrys vulnerability to natural hazards is due to a number of factors including. This profile provides an overview of climate risk issues, including how climate change will potentially impact agriculture production, livestock, water resources and human health. Climate change and the ethiopian economy efd initiative. When, where, and how these changes will transpire has not been adequately addressed. Nuclear techniques offer substantial advantages over conventional techniques. Economic impact of climate change on crop production in. It supports 400 development projects and programmes in 57 countries in africa, asia and latin america. These seriously limit policy formulation and decision making in terms of adaptation and mitigation strategies. Net revenue was regressed on climate, household and soil variables.
Integrated landscape management to enhance food security and ecosystem resilience in. Pdf agriculture under a changing climate in ethiopia. Agriculture completely dominates ethiopias economy and any climatechange impacts on agriculture will be. The impact of climate change on development efforts 2 table 1. This chapter attempted to assess the shortrun economic impacts of climate change change in the levels of temperature and precipitation with a focus on the ethiopian economy. Ethiopia is the worlds fifth largest coffee producer and. Climate change, natural disaster and rural poverty in ethiopia. Threats and opportunities international climate change. The impact of climate change and adaptation through agro ecological farming practices.
The worst climate change scenarios envisage major impact on food production and food insecurity implying direct effects on agriculture in many countries around the globe challinor et al. This study assesses the economywide and regional effects of climate changeinduced productivity and labor supply shocks in ethiopian agriculture. Thermal expansion of the upper ocean due to climate change leads to a rise in sea level and the subsequent invasion of saltwater into freshwater horizons, reducing the quantity and quality of their reserves. The impacts of climate change have been observed in ethiopia over a long period of time which changes the environmental conditions that influence the livelihoods of the farmers and thus the national economy. Agriculture and climate change are deeply intertwined.
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